The recent Paris meeting between Israel and Syria has been framed as a modest diplomatic step forward, producing a deconfliction mechanism and a cautiously positive joint statement. Yet beneath the surface, the fundamentals of the relationship remain largely unchanged—and the prospects for real progress remain limited.

Israel continues to regard the new Syrian government as a future security challenge rather than a partner for engagement. On the other side, Damascus believes it has gained strategic breathing room, especially after Washington’s decision to lift sanctions through the repeal of the Caesar Act. This new confidence has reduced Syria’s incentive to make concessions to Israel at this stage.

Both parties are careful not to alienate the United States, whose role as mediator remains central. However, developments on the ground tell a different story. Israel may scale back air operations, but it shows no indication of ending land incursions. Notably, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has neither acknowledged the meeting on its official Facebook or Telegram accounts—two days after it took place—nor published the joint statement that the American side has promoted as evidence of progress and a potential breakthrough in Israel–Syria relations.Until these contradictions are addressed, diplomatic gestures are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Shadi Martini is an affiliate fellow at the Tukhum Institute for Syria–Israel Affairs. He is a Syrian-American businessman, political activist, and advocate for interfaith cooperation.